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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 29 games
41%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 17 games
53%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 16 games
69%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 15 games
53%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
60%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 15 games
73%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 14 games
57%

Gaimin Gladiators

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 27 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 20 games
65%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
tOfu · 20 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
BOOM · 17 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 16 games
88%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 15 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
tOfu · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 396 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
454 picks · 690 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
303 picks · 466 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
286 picks · 698 bans
57%
Undying
Undying
282 picks · 482 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 396 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
253 picks · 868 bans
51%
Enigma
Enigma
252 picks · 823 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total51% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:36
Team Liquid 49%Gaimin Gladiators 51%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 49:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracmiCKe
56% · 89 games50% · 81 game
Ursadyrachyo
Ursa
Lifestealer
LifestealerMATUMBAMAN
49% · 43 games47% · 65 games
Shadow FiendBOOM
Shadow Fiend
Venomancer
Venomancerzai
43% · 36 games47% · 53 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Tiny
TinyBoxi
52% · 226 games51% · 164 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Lich
LichiNSaNiA
42% · 41 game55% · 72 games
DisruptortOfu
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed33:25
Team Liquid 48%Gaimin Gladiators 52%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracmiCKe
54% · 124 games48% · 65 games
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
Faceless Void
Sniper
SniperMATUMBAMAN
40% · 21 game54% · 95 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerzai
42% · 45 games49% · 117 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctoriNSaNiA
63% · 35 games43% · 35 games
Primal BeastAce
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
47% · 237 games54% · 150 games
SnapfiretOfu
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2