The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Hokoriloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Razorsignature
ATF · 26 games
Pucksignature
bzm · 24 games
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 16 games
Vipersignature
ATF · 16 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 15 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
511 picks · 396 bans
Marci
454 picks · 690 bans
Death Prophet
303 picks · 466 bans
Puck
286 picks · 698 bans
Undying
282 picks · 482 bans
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 396 bans
Batrider
253 picks · 868 bans
Enigma
252 picks · 823 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:11
OG 53%Hokori 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:18.
Game 2prediction missed42:45
OG 53%Hokori 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by Hokori in 59:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2