BLAST Slam VII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
Tinysignature
Mac · 14 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 12 games
Jakirooften banned
Jaunuel · 12 games
Muerta
Jhocam · 12 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 11 games
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 11 games
PlayTime
Tusk
DJ · 10 games
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
Void Spiritsignature
Armel · 6 games
Jakirooften banned
Kuku · 5 games
Phantom Assassin
Gabbi · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Kuku · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
678 picks · 841 bans
Tiny
572 picks · 578 bans
Tusk
501 picks · 429 bans
Warlock
476 picks · 334 bans
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1144 bans
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 689 bans
Mars
396 picks · 621 bans
Shadow Fiend
395 picks · 1029 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% PlayTime
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Nemesis 66%PlayTime 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Nemesis 66%PlayTime 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 66%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2