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BLAST Slam VII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ivoryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 24 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 20 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
cml · 19 games
37%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 16 games
19%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Shanks · 16 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Bob · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 14 games
50%

Ivory

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Dric~ · 10 games
30%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Teehee · 9 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 8 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Dric~ · 7 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Rupido · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ken · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
678 picks · 844 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 582 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
502 picks · 431 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
476 picks · 334 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
418 picks · 1146 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 690 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 622 bans
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
395 picks · 1029 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Ivory
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total64% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Execration 64%Ivory 36%
The model gave 64% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration.
Game 2prediction correct
Execration 64%Ivory 36%
The model gave 64% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 64%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2