The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 32 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 21 game
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 16 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 16 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Monet · 12 games
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 11 games
Pudgesignature
Ori · 11 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
513 picks · 398 bans
Marci
454 picks · 694 bans
Death Prophet
303 picks · 466 bans
Puck
288 picks · 699 bans
Undying
283 picks · 484 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 399 bans
Batrider
253 picks · 866 bans
Enigma
252 picks · 824 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 39%
Hero pool strength62% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:7
Team Aster 78%beastcoast 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 22:19.
Game 2prediction correct37:20
Team Aster 78%beastcoast 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 78%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2