The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Entityloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
512 picks · 396 bans
Marci
451 picks · 691 bans
Death Prophet
302 picks · 466 bans
Puck
288 picks · 697 bans
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 399 bans
Undying
277 picks · 484 bans
Batrider
253 picks · 863 bans
Enigma
251 picks · 819 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:38
Fnatic 40%Entity 60%
The model gave 60% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 41:27.
Game 2prediction correct17:46
Fnatic 40%Entity 60%
The model gave 60% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 41:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 60%
Accuracy by game2 of 2