The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 27 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 24 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 21 game
Ogre Magi
Panda · 19 games
Banesignature
Panda · 14 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 14 games
Weaversignature
Sacred · 13 games
Talon Esports
Marcioften banned
Q · 19 games
Tiny
Q · 16 games
Bane
Hyde · 13 games
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 13 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
512 picks · 396 bans
Marci
451 picks · 691 bans
Death Prophet
302 picks · 466 bans
Puck
288 picks · 697 bans
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 399 bans
Undying
277 picks · 484 bans
Batrider
253 picks · 863 bans
Enigma
251 picks · 819 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 39%
Hero pool strength56% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:16
Thunder Awaken 61%Talon Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 38:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgePakazs
Ursa23savage
TinyDarkMago
Void SpiritMikoto
EnigmaSacred
Visagekpii
UndyingPanda
RubickQ
Nyx AssassinMatthew
ClockwerkHyde
Game 2prediction correct40:15
Thunder Awaken 58%Talon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 36:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgePakazs
Shadow Fiend23savage
Ember SpiritDarkMago
PangolierMikoto
DawnbreakerSacred
Death Prophetkpii
MarciMatthew
EarthshakerQ
DazzlePanda
UndyingHyde
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 67%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2