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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 17 games
76%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
75%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
y` · 11 games
91%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 11 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
73%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
73%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 29 games
41%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 17 games
53%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 16 games
69%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 15 games
53%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
509 picks · 394 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
449 picks · 686 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
302 picks · 465 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
287 picks · 696 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 399 bans
46%
Undying
Undying
273 picks · 483 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
252 picks · 860 bans
51%
Chen
Chen
250 picks · 512 bans
62%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 35%
Hero pool strength60% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:29
LGD Gaming 61%Team Liquid 39%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 46:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaNothingToSay
50% · 125 games46% · 102 games
LeshracmiCKe
Leshrac
Lifestealer
LifestealerAme
58% · 37 games49% · 90 games
BristlebackMATUMBAMAN
Bristleback
Enigma
EnigmaFaith_bian
51% · 130 games51% · 205 games
Beastmasterzai
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyXinQ
47% · 263 games52% · 70 games
Primal BeastBoxi
Primal Beast
Disruptor
Disruptory`
47% · 84 games52% · 172 games
UndyingiNSaNiA
Undying
Game 2prediction correct20:25
LGD Gaming 63%Team Liquid 37%
The model gave 63% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 43:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
51% · 119 games49% · 50 games
SniperMATUMBAMAN
Sniper
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
51% · 282 games48% · 294 games
PangoliermiCKe
Pangolier
Puck
PuckFaith_bian
53% · 186 games53% · 19 games
Axezai
Axe
Enigma
EnigmaXinQ
51% · 150 games42% · 253 games
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
55% · 53 games52% · 174 games
UndyingiNSaNiA
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 74%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2