The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Soniqsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Razorsignature
ATF · 26 games
Pucksignature
bzm · 24 games
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 16 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 16 games
Vipersignature
ATF · 16 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 15 games
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
508 picks · 394 bans
Marci
448 picks · 683 bans
Death Prophet
301 picks · 464 bans
Puck
287 picks · 695 bans
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 399 bans
Undying
272 picks · 480 bans
Batrider
251 picks · 860 bans
Chen
250 picks · 512 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 29%
Hero pool strength57% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
OG 80%Soniqs 20%
The model gave 80% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 31:08.
Game 2prediction correct29:38
OG 80%Soniqs 20%
The model gave 80% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 46:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 80%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2