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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 24 games
58%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 19 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 14 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 13 games
85%

Talon Esports

Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 18 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
Q · 16 games
44%
Bane
Bane
Hyde · 13 games
46%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 13 games
62%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 13 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 12 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 389 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
443 picks · 678 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
301 picks · 462 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
286 picks · 691 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
276 picks · 398 bans
46%
Undying
Undying
270 picks · 477 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
248 picks · 855 bans
51%
Chen
Chen
248 picks · 512 bans
63%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)17% vs 39%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:22
Tundra Esports 55%Talon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 56:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
66% · 23 games63% · 15 games
Lone Druid23savage
Lone Druid
Doom
Doom33
49% · 116 games46% · 186 games
PangolierMikoto
Pangolier
Kunkka
KunkkaNine
48% · 178 games46% · 27 games
Dark Seerkpii
Dark Seer
Silencer
SilencerSneyking
55% · 34 games44% · 160 games
GrimstrokeQ
Grimstroke
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
52% · 153 games52% · 116 games
ClockwerkHyde
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct38:24
Tundra Esports 57%Talon Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
43% · 99 games59% · 125 games
Morphling23savage
Morphling
Visage
Visage33
47% · 90 games51% · 255 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNine
46% · 254 games49% · 66 games
Brewmasterkpii
Brewmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSaksa
50% · 155 games53% · 189 games
MarciQ
Marci
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
51% · 65 games52% · 28 games
SilencerHyde
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 59%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2