?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 17 games
76%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
73%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
83%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 11 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
73%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
73%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
y` · 10 games
90%

OG

Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 25 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 24 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 16 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 16 games
69%
Viper
Vipersignature
ATF · 16 games
69%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 389 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
443 picks · 676 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
300 picks · 462 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
286 picks · 691 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
276 picks · 398 bans
46%
Undying
Undying
269 picks · 476 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
248 picks · 853 bans
51%
Chen
Chen
248 picks · 510 bans
63%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total66% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:9
LGD Gaming 58%OG 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 27:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAme
49% · 35 games47% · 122 games
Faceless VoidYuragi
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
57% · 162 games49% · 150 games
RazorATF
Razor
Venomancer
VenomancerFaith_bian
55% · 34 games54% · 29 games
Magnusbzm
Magnus
Undying
Undyingy`
46% · 78 games33% · 10 games
Elder TitanTaiga
Elder Titan
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinXinQ
57% · 63 games43% · 61 game
PugnaMisha
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct27:4
LGD Gaming 60%OG 40%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAme
53% · 82 games46% · 64 games
Shadow FiendYuragi
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
55% · 224 games48% · 145 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFaith_bian
50% · 260 games48% · 101 game
TidehunterATF
Tidehunter
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXinQ
62% · 50 games40% · 29 games
OracleTaiga
Oracle
Dazzle
Dazzley`
53% · 94 games45% · 371 game
TinyMisha
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 66%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2