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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 22 games
82%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 19 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 15 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 15 games
87%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Miposhka · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
82%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
55%

Talon Esports

Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tiny
Xepher · 15 games
40%
Bane
Bane
Hyde · 13 games
46%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 13 games
62%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 13 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 12 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
496 picks · 386 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
434 picks · 667 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
297 picks · 462 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
285 picks · 687 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
275 picks · 394 bans
46%
Undying
Undying
262 picks · 472 bans
56%
Chen
Chen
248 picks · 508 bans
63%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 331 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 41%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:31
Team Spirit 55%Talon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 38:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
44% · 197 games52% · 95 games
Doom23savage
Doom
Invoker
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
42% · 145 games50% · 147 games
Templar AssassinMikoto
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
52% · 177 games56% · 70 games
Visagekpii
Visage
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMira
48% · 136 games50% · 278 games
TinyQ
Tiny
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorMiposhka
47% · 31 game57% · 96 games
UndyingHyde
Undying
Game 2prediction correct28:24
Team Spirit 52%Talon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYatoro
36% · 68 games55% · 39 games
Drow Ranger23savage
Drow Ranger
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 59 games53% · 194 games
Queen of PainMikoto
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsCollapse
45% · 282 games53% · 141 game
Enigmakpii
Enigma
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMira
39% · 48 games56% · 120 games
MarciQ
Marci
Undying
UndyingMiposhka
50% · 149 games59% · 112 games
TuskHyde
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2