The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Soniqsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Tinysignature
XinQ · 17 games
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 11 games
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
Dazzlesignature
y` · 10 games
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
503 picks · 394 bans
Marci
438 picks · 674 bans
Death Prophet
298 picks · 465 bans
Puck
289 picks · 700 bans
Dawnbreaker
284 picks · 397 bans
Undying
262 picks · 470 bans
Winter Wyvern
253 picks · 332 bans
Batrider
250 picks · 850 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 32%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:16
LGD Gaming 70%Soniqs 30%
The model gave 70% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:18.
Game 2prediction missed9:29
LGD Gaming 70%Soniqs 30%
The model gave 70% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Soniqs in 44:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 70%
Accuracy by game1 of 2