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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Wij · 10 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Wij · 9 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Oscar · 9 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 8 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 8 games
50%

OG

Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 25 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 24 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 16 games
69%
Viper
Vipersignature
ATF · 16 games
69%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 15 games
40%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
500 picks · 394 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
437 picks · 668 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
298 picks · 463 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
289 picks · 696 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
284 picks · 397 bans
47%
Undying
Undying
259 picks · 466 bans
56%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
253 picks · 332 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
249 picks · 847 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% OG
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:38
Evil Geniuses 31%OG 69%
The model gave 69% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 52:17.
Game 2prediction correct34:5
Evil Geniuses 31%OG 69%
The model gave 69% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 24:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 69%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2