The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 32 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 20 games
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 16 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 16 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Monet · 12 games
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 11 games
Razorsignature
Ori · 11 games
Talon Esports
Marcioften banned
Q · 17 games
Tiny
Q · 15 games
Bane
Hyde · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 13 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 12 games
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
500 picks · 394 bans
Marci
437 picks · 666 bans
Death Prophet
298 picks · 463 bans
Puck
289 picks · 696 bans
Dawnbreaker
284 picks · 397 bans
Undying
259 picks · 465 bans
Winter Wyvern
253 picks · 332 bans
Batrider
249 picks · 846 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 42%
Hero pool strength59% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:13
Team Aster 62%Talon Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 37:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMonet
Faceless Void23savage
LeshracOri
InvokerMikoto
BrewmasterXxs
Primal Beastkpii
ClockwerkBoBoKa
RubickQ
Shadow DemonFantasy
SnapfireHyde
Game 2prediction correct31:8
Team Aster 60%Talon Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerMonet
Ember Spirit23savage
BroodmotherXxs
Storm SpiritMikoto
Primal BeastOri
Visagekpii
SnapfireBoBoKa
ClockwerkQ
JakiroFantasy
DisruptorHyde
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 74%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2