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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 13 games
77%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bryle- · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
bryle- · 13 games
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
bryle- · 11 games
36%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Timado · 10 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 9 games
89%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 9 games
44%

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 23 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 21 game
71%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 17 games
76%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 16 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 14 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Nine · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 13 games
85%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 392 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
433 picks · 666 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
298 picks · 461 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
290 picks · 697 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
283 picks · 398 bans
46%
Undying
Undying
259 picks · 462 bans
56%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
254 picks · 332 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
249 picks · 845 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 19%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:16
TSM 53%Tundra Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 48:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendbryle-
51% · 43 games55% · 89 games
MiranaNine
Mirana
Pudge
PudgeTimado
50% · 61 game54% · 93 games
Visage33
Visage
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMoonMeander
47% · 138 games55% · 53 games
LunaSkiter
Luna
Marci
MarciSabeRLight-
46% · 173 games49% · 89 games
EarthshakerSaksa
Earthshaker
Warlock
WarlockDuBu
44% · 28 games49% · 119 games
Winter WyvernSneyking
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed8:25
TSM 52%Tundra Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on TSM — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
58% · 102 games61% · 23 games
Outworld DestroyerNine
Outworld Destroyer
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
53% · 59 games42% · 121 game
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Marci
Marcibryle-
55% · 237 games49% · 85 games
Visage33
Visage
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMoonMeander
42% · 189 games48% · 372 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockDuBu
53% · 62 games51% · 48 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2