The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Chensignature
Puppey · 18 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 15 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Resolut1on · 11 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 11 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
501 picks · 391 bans
Marci
433 picks · 664 bans
Death Prophet
298 picks · 461 bans
Puck
289 picks · 697 bans
Dawnbreaker
283 picks · 396 bans
Undying
259 picks · 462 bans
Winter Wyvern
254 picks · 332 bans
Batrider
249 picks · 843 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:27
Team Secret 63%beastcoast 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 34:13.
Game 2prediction correct34:6
Team Secret 63%beastcoast 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 19:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 63%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2