The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Tinysignature
Mira · 22 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 19 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Miposhka · 12 games
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 11 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
Viperoften banned
Collapse · 11 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
501 picks · 390 bans
Marci
432 picks · 663 bans
Death Prophet
298 picks · 461 bans
Puck
289 picks · 697 bans
Dawnbreaker
283 picks · 396 bans
Undying
259 picks · 460 bans
Winter Wyvern
254 picks · 332 bans
Batrider
249 picks · 842 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:19
Team Spirit 57%Entity 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:05.
Game 2prediction correct27:11
Team Spirit 57%Entity 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 57%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2