The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Soniqsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tiny
miCKe · 28 games
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 14 games
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 14 games
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 14 games
Clockwerksignature
Boxi · 12 games
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
500 picks · 389 bans
Marci
431 picks · 659 bans
Death Prophet
298 picks · 461 bans
Puck
287 picks · 695 bans
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 396 bans
Undying
259 picks · 457 bans
Winter Wyvern
254 picks · 332 bans
Batrider
248 picks · 839 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:40
Team Liquid 53%Soniqs 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Soniqs in 47:54.
Game 2prediction correct35:40
Team Liquid 53%Soniqs 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:02:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2