The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Hokoriloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Marssignature
Fbz · 29 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 21 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
Rubick
Tims · 16 games
Tiny
Yopaj · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Miranasignature
Tims · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 13 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 388 bans
Marci
432 picks · 657 bans
Death Prophet
297 picks · 461 bans
Puck
288 picks · 694 bans
Dawnbreaker
283 picks · 397 bans
Undying
259 picks · 456 bans
Winter Wyvern
254 picks · 334 bans
Batrider
248 picks · 838 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:16
BOOM Esports 51%Hokori 49%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 43:57.
Game 2prediction missed14:35
BOOM Esports 51%Hokori 49%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Hokori in 42:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2