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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 17 games
76%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
73%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
83%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 11 games
64%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
73%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
y` · 10 games
90%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
80%

Evil Geniuses

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Wij · 10 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Wij · 9 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Oscar · 9 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 8 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 387 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
430 picks · 657 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
297 picks · 461 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
287 picks · 694 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
283 picks · 395 bans
47%
Undying
Undying
259 picks · 454 bans
56%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
254 picks · 334 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
248 picks · 837 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 47%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:30
LGD Gaming 84%Evil Geniuses 16%
The model gave 84% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 29:57.
Game 2prediction missed19:50
LGD Gaming 84%Evil Geniuses 16%
The model gave 84% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 50:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 84%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2