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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 32 games
69%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
84%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 19 games
68%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 15 games
73%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 15 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Monet · 12 games
75%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 11 games
73%
Razor
Razorsignature
Ori · 11 games
73%

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 23 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 21 game
71%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 17 games
76%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 16 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 14 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 13 games
85%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 387 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
428 picks · 655 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
296 picks · 461 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
284 picks · 694 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 395 bans
47%
Undying
Undying
258 picks · 453 bans
56%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
253 picks · 334 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
248 picks · 834 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 20%
Hero pool strength51% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:13
Team Aster 61%Tundra Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 35:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMonet
50% · 76 games54% · 103 games
LifestealerSkiter
Lifestealer
Primal Beast
Primal BeastOri
51% · 36 games45% · 41 game
Broodmother33
Broodmother
Mars
MarsXxs
46% · 156 games50% · 143 games
TuskNine
Tusk
Marci
MarciBoBoKa
55% · 123 games55% · 90 games
EarthshakerSaksa
Earthshaker
Jakiro
JakiroFantasy
42% · 37 games47% · 51 game
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed23:38
Team Aster 63%Tundra Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 53:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMonet
42% · 19 games45% · 62 games
UrsaSkiter
Ursa
Puck
PuckOri
51% · 251 game50% · 179 games
Void SpiritNine
Void Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
50% · 34 games54% · 99 games
Enigma33
Enigma
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBoBoKa
48% · 28 games54% · 63 games
EarthshakerSaksa
Earthshaker
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernFantasy
48% · 125 games52% · 54 games
Shadow DemonSneyking
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 72%
Accuracy by game1 of 2