The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Entityloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
499 picks · 387 bans
Marci
427 picks · 652 bans
Death Prophet
294 picks · 461 bans
Puck
283 picks · 694 bans
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 395 bans
Undying
256 picks · 451 bans
Winter Wyvern
253 picks · 334 bans
Batrider
248 picks · 830 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:11
beastcoast 43%Entity 57%
The model gave 57% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 30:31.
Game 2prediction correct8:32
beastcoast 43%Entity 57%
The model gave 57% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 27:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 57%
Accuracy by game2 of 2