The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Hokoriloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
Tinysignature
XinQ · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 10 games
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
Dazzlesignature
y` · 9 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
496 picks · 384 bans
Marci
423 picks · 644 bans
Death Prophet
293 picks · 461 bans
Puck
283 picks · 690 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 395 bans
Undying
252 picks · 447 bans
Winter Wyvern
252 picks · 334 bans
Batrider
248 picks · 820 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 59%
Hero pool strength64% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:23
LGD Gaming 62%Hokori 38%
The model gave 62% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 43:23.
Game 2prediction missed9:34
LGD Gaming 62%Hokori 38%
The model gave 62% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Hokori in 35:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2