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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 24 games
83%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 18 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 18 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 17 games
65%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 17 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 16 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 15 games
67%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
71%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 28 games
39%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 18 games
56%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Boxi · 14 games
57%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 14 games
50%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
526 picks · 411 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
439 picks · 680 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
312 picks · 724 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
309 picks · 422 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
298 picks · 481 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
278 picks · 351 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
253 picks · 844 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
253 picks · 447 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 35%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:30
Virtus.pro 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastgpK~
47% · 48 games54% · 67 games
LifestealerMATUMBAMAN
Lifestealer
Razor
RazorRAMZES666
43% · 163 games53% · 251 game
PangoliermiCKe
Pangolier
Visage
VisageDM
60% · 68 games56% · 50 games
Venomancerzai
Venomancer
Tiny
Tinyyamich
48% · 296 games46% · 213 games
ClockwerkBoxi
Clockwerk
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageXakoda
47% · 97 games51% · 91 game
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed13:31
Virtus.pro 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlinggpK~
43% · 154 games54% · 94 games
LunaMATUMBAMAN
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawDM
47% · 141 game55% · 139 games
Queen of PainmiCKe
Queen of Pain
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightRAMZES666
47% · 86 games59% · 171 game
Beastmasterzai
Beastmaster
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
51% · 153 games46% · 74 games
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Disruptor
Dazzle
DazzleXakoda
48% · 63 games48% · 119 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 55%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2