The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
T1loss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 15 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 14 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
Resolut1on · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
532 picks · 417 bans
Marci
447 picks · 673 bans
Dawnbreaker
316 picks · 434 bans
Puck
314 picks · 739 bans
Death Prophet
296 picks · 486 bans
Winter Wyvern
281 picks · 356 bans
Batrider
255 picks · 843 bans
Dazzle
248 picks · 156 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:22
T1 30%Team Secret 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 27:22.
Game 2prediction correct18:33
T1 30%Team Secret 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 37:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 70%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2