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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 24 games
83%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 18 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 17 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 16 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 15 games
67%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xakoda · 14 games
50%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 25 games
44%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 18 games
56%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 14 games
57%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
532 picks · 417 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
447 picks · 673 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
316 picks · 434 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
314 picks · 739 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
296 picks · 486 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
281 picks · 356 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
255 picks · 843 bans
51%
Dazzle
Dazzle
248 picks · 156 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 32%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:48
Virtus.pro 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 58:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingRAMZES666
56% · 96 games52% · 96 games
Faceless VoidMATUMBAMAN
Faceless Void
Timbersaw
TimbersawDM
52% · 92 games55% · 57 games
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Shadow Fiend
Invoker
InvokergpK~
38% · 76 games47% · 57 games
Visagezai
Visage
Primal Beast
Primal Beastyamich
46% · 49 games52% · 24 games
Witch DoctoriNSaNiA
Witch Doctor
Disruptor
DisruptorXakoda
43% · 51 game56% · 130 games
ClockwerkBoxi
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct40:35
Virtus.pro 55%Team Liquid 45%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetRAMZES666
45% · 75 games63% · 22 games
Lone DruidMATUMBAMAN
Lone Druid
Primal Beast
Primal BeastgpK~
58% · 31 game53% · 57 games
PudgemiCKe
Pudge
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDM
45% · 255 games58% · 90 games
Leshraczai
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirityamich
44% · 201 game47% · 329 games
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Disruptor
DisruptorXakoda
45% · 56 games56% · 120 games
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct21:11
Virtus.pro 54%Team Liquid 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaRAMZES666
58% · 116 games44% · 98 games
Faceless VoidMATUMBAMAN
Faceless Void
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendgpK~
50% · 55 games49% · 234 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Visage
VisageDM
61% · 115 games59% · 20 games
Axezai
Axe
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
41% · 217 games47% · 219 games
SnapfireBoxi
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorXakoda
51% · 91 game50% · 23 games
Witch DoctoriNSaNiA
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 57%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3