The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Marcioften banned
Boomy · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 17 games
Tiny
Boomy · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Boomy · 14 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 12 games
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 12 games
Snapfire
Boomy · 11 games
Undyingsignature
Force · 11 games
Wildcard Gaming
Snapfire
The Warden · 20 games
Tinysignature
The Warden · 15 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 13 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
iAnnihilate · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 12 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 11 games
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Sunlight · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
542 picks · 422 bans
Marci
453 picks · 677 bans
Puck
326 picks · 746 bans
Dawnbreaker
321 picks · 442 bans
Death Prophet
297 picks · 492 bans
Winter Wyvern
285 picks · 361 bans
Batrider
258 picks · 845 bans
Dazzle
250 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:34
Polaris Esports 64%Wildcard Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 53:22.
Game 2prediction missed20:30
Polaris Esports 64%Wildcard Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 46:03.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 64%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2