The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tempestloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Clockwerk
swedenstrong · 18 games
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
No[o]ne · 12 games
Snapfire
Solo · 12 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 11 games
Timbersawsignature
laise · 10 games
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
543 picks · 422 bans
Marci
453 picks · 673 bans
Puck
325 picks · 747 bans
Dawnbreaker
321 picks · 444 bans
Death Prophet
296 picks · 491 bans
Winter Wyvern
286 picks · 361 bans
Batrider
258 picks · 842 bans
Dazzle
250 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:12
Natus Vincere 68%Tempest 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:01.
Game 2prediction correct54:20
Natus Vincere 68%Tempest 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 42:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 68%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2