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The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rue · 40 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 19 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
not me · 18 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Panto · 17 games
35%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yatoro · 17 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Collapse · 16 games
63%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 39 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 38 games
68%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 31 game
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 28 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 27 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 25 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 23 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Boxi · 23 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
516 picks · 356 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
358 picks · 421 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
347 picks · 636 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 474 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
317 picks · 174 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 346 bans
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
309 picks · 594 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 221 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head8 – 2
Model total54% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:23
Team Spirit 46%Team Liquid 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 51:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezYatoro
48% · 283 games43% · 158 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
50% · 360 games52% · 103 games
Earth SpiritNisha
Earth Spirit
Slardar
SlardarLarl
52% · 466 games52% · 407 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Windranger
Windrangernot me
49% · 404 games53% · 649 games
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
Bane
Banerue
53% · 311 games49% · 507 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct11:41
Team Spirit 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYatoro
48% · 176 games49% · 253 games
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCollapse
47% · 191 game48% · 202 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Puck
PuckLarl
52% · 570 games56% · 315 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Rubick
Rubicknot me
48% · 475 games52% · 487 games
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernrue
44% · 141 game56% · 296 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed38:22
Team Spirit 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 49:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYatoro
45% · 95 games57% · 82 games
LinaNisha
Lina
Death Prophet
Death ProphetCollapse
42% · 14 games46% · 32 games
SpectremiCKe
Spectre
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLarl
46% · 94 games55% · 159 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Mirana
Mirananot me
56% · 104 games58% · 34 games
Witch DoctortOfu
Witch Doctor
Tusk
Tuskrue
42% · 206 games48% · 206 games
ClockwerkBoxi
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 54%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3