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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 23 games
83%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 17 games
59%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 17 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 16 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 15 games
67%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xakoda · 14 games
50%

Vici Gaming

Marci
Marcisignature
Frisk · 9 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 8 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yds · 8 games
63%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 7 games
43%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Xm · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Yds · 6 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 6 games
83%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Yang · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
541 picks · 421 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
451 picks · 671 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
327 picks · 746 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
323 picks · 444 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
295 picks · 491 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
286 picks · 361 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
258 picks · 837 bans
52%
Dazzle
Dazzle
250 picks · 157 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:37
Virtus.pro 58%Vici Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 32:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomRAMZES666
50% · 75 games35% · 27 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Lina
LinagpK~
52% · 96 games46% · 135 games
Chaos Knightpoyoyo
Chaos Knight
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritDM
39% · 19 games54% · 32 games
Primal Beastniu
Primal Beast
Tiny
Tinyyamich
54% · 253 games57% · 142 games
UndyingYang
Undying
Silencer
SilencerXakoda
33% · 23 games53% · 130 games
TuskFrisk
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct43:33
Virtus.pro 59%Vici Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:02:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreRAMZES666
52% · 37 games49% · 91 game
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
Faceless Void
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
56% · 105 games32% · 20 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Undying
Undyingyamich
57% · 149 games56% · 58 games
Enigmaniu
Enigma
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
47% · 131 game44% · 241 game
SnapfireYang
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorXakoda
47% · 72 games52% · 84 games
TuskFrisk
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct39:19
Virtus.pro 63%Vici Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 51:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendgpK~
44% · 60 games50% · 134 games
Terrorbladepoyoyo
Terrorblade
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRAMZES666
49% · 74 games49% · 286 games
TinyXm
Tiny
Visage
VisageDM
57% · 107 games53% · 50 games
Primal Beastniu
Primal Beast
Disruptor
DisruptorXakoda
45% · 76 games55% · 91 game
EarthshakerFrisk
Earthshaker
Marci
Marciyamich
50% · 286 games49% · 42 games
LichYang
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 69%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3