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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Marci
Marcisignature
Frisk · 8 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 8 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yds · 8 games
63%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 7 games
43%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Xm · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Yds · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yang · 5 games
40%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
poyoyo · 5 games
80%

Polaris Esports

Marci
Marcioften banned
Boomy · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 17 games
76%
Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 15 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Boomy · 14 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 11 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 11 games
55%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Force · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
550 picks · 425 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
458 picks · 672 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
332 picks · 753 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
329 picks · 453 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
299 picks · 493 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
291 picks · 362 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
259 picks · 841 bans
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
251 picks · 160 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:6
Vici Gaming 45%Polaris Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 30:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperXm
71% · 6 games56% · 148 games
LunaNatsumi
Luna
Morphling
Morphlingpoyoyo
53% · 86 games46% · 179 games
TidehunterForce
Tidehunter
Mars
Marsniu
53% · 275 games51% · 125 games
VisageMac
Visage
Marci
MarciFrisk
51% · 109 games42% · 55 games
LichEyyou
Lich
Snapfire
SnapfireYang
48% · 195 games46% · 164 games
TuskBoomy
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed46:15
Vici Gaming 45%Polaris Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendpoyoyo
50% · 64 games61% · 108 games
Faceless VoidNatsumi
Faceless Void
Void Spirit
Void SpiritXm
44% · 142 games51% · 121 game
InvokerMac
Invoker
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerniu
44% · 67 games54% · 100 games
BatriderForce
Batrider
Rubick
RubickFrisk
42% · 118 games46% · 115 games
EnchantressBoomy
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskYang
54% · 98 games55% · 45 games
MagnusEyyou
Magnus
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 58%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2