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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
39%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 18 games
56%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 16 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Boxi · 14 games
57%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
54%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
The Warden · 20 games
25%
Tiny
Tinysignature
The Warden · 15 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 13 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
iAnnihilate · 12 games
42%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 12 games
33%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 11 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 11 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sunlight · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
545 picks · 424 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
458 picks · 650 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
332 picks · 451 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
332 picks · 753 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
298 picks · 493 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
289 picks · 362 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
256 picks · 831 bans
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
250 picks · 160 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
Team Liquid 69%Wildcard Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:21.
Game 2prediction correct35:11
Team Liquid 69%Wildcard Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 69%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2