The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Marcisignature
Frisk · 8 games
Tinysignature
Yds · 8 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 7 games
Hoodwink
Yds · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yang · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
poyoyo · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Yang · 5 games
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 12 games
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 10 games
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 10 games
Marcioften banned
ZfreeK · 9 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Husky · 9 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Moo · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
545 picks · 424 bans
Marci
458 picks · 650 bans
Dawnbreaker
332 picks · 451 bans
Puck
332 picks · 753 bans
Death Prophet
298 picks · 493 bans
Winter Wyvern
289 picks · 362 bans
Batrider
256 picks · 831 bans
Dazzle
250 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:45
Vici Gaming 44%nouns 56%
The model gave 56% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 55:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaXm
MorphlingCostabile
Troll Warlordpoyoyo
TinyGunnar
Visageniu
ViperMoo
Winter WyvernYang
EnigmaHusky
EarthshakerFrisk
TuskZfreeK
Game 2prediction missed20:36
Vici Gaming 51%nouns 49%
The model gave 51% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by nouns in 57:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slarkpoyoyo
Drow RangerCostabile
PuckXm
PangolierGunnar
Viperniu
TuskMoo
IoYang
EnchantressZfreeK
EarthshakerFrisk
UndyingHusky
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 57%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2