The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Linasignature
Paparazi · 9 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Pyw · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
ELeVeN · 8 games
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 8 games
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
lou · 8 games
Death Prophetsignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
Enigmaoften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
545 picks · 424 bans
Marci
458 picks · 650 bans
Dawnbreaker
332 picks · 451 bans
Puck
332 picks · 753 bans
Death Prophet
298 picks · 493 bans
Winter Wyvern
289 picks · 362 bans
Batrider
256 picks · 831 bans
Dazzle
250 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:17
T1 34%Xtreme Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 59:00.
Game 2prediction correct18:33
T1 34%Xtreme Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 66%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2