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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Polaris Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
69%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 16 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 14 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 14 games
71%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 10 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
50%

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 18 games
72%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Boomy · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 15 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Boomy · 14 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 11 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 11 games
55%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
545 picks · 424 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
458 picks · 650 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
332 picks · 451 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
332 picks · 753 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
298 picks · 493 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
289 picks · 362 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
256 picks · 831 bans
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
250 picks · 160 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:29
Team Secret 48%Polaris Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 34:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerNisha
44% · 102 games47% · 53 games
Shadow FiendNatsumi
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterResolut1on
60% · 171 game47% · 260 games
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Razor
RazorCrystallis
50% · 163 games49% · 134 games
ViperForce
Viper
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
43% · 161 game59% · 117 games
ChenEyyou
Chen
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
51% · 85 games49% · 118 games
TuskBoomy
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed43:18
Team Secret 50%Polaris Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enchantress
EnchantressResolut1on
47% · 166 games50% · 66 games
Shadow FiendMac
Shadow Fiend
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallis
51% · 126 games48% · 150 games
KunkkaNatsumi
Kunkka
Batrider
BatriderNisha
53% · 143 games50% · 151 game
UndyingForce
Undying
Enigma
EnigmaPuppey
52% · 166 games44% · 152 games
RubickBoomy
Rubick
Earthshaker
EarthshakerZayac
60% · 93 games46% · 175 games
ClockwerkEyyou
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2