The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
nounsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 15 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 14 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 14 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 13 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 10 games
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 10 games
Zeussignature
Nisha · 10 games
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 12 games
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 10 games
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 10 games
Marcioften banned
ZfreeK · 9 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Husky · 9 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Moo · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
554 picks · 429 bans
Marci
459 picks · 658 bans
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 459 bans
Puck
337 picks · 765 bans
Death Prophet
298 picks · 493 bans
Winter Wyvern
291 picks · 371 bans
Batrider
254 picks · 835 bans
Dazzle
252 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:12
Team Secret 49%nouns 51%
The model gave 51% on nouns — the game was taken by Team Secret in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlardarCrystallis
Drow RangerCostabile
MorphlingNisha
LycanMoo
BeastmasterResolut1on
PangolierGunnar
EnchantressPuppey
LionZfreeK
Nyx AssassinZayac
UndyingHusky
Game 2prediction correct30:50
Team Secret 50%nouns 50%
The model gave 50% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 47:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerNisha
Templar AssassinGunnar
ViperResolut1on
WeaverCostabile
Monkey KingCrystallis
BatriderMoo
SilencerPuppey
ClockwerkZfreeK
TuskZayac
Witch DoctorHusky
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2