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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Infamousloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
39%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 18 games
56%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 17 games
59%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 16 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Boxi · 14 games
57%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
54%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%

Infamous

Bane
Bane
Prada · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mariano · 8 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Mariano · 6 games
17%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
20%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Prada · 5 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Genek · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
554 picks · 429 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
459 picks · 658 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 459 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
337 picks · 765 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
298 picks · 493 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
291 picks · 371 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
254 picks · 835 bans
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
252 picks · 160 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:11
Team Liquid 41%Infamous 59%
The model gave 59% on Infamous — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:27.
Game 2prediction correct8:16
Team Liquid 41%Infamous 59%
The model gave 59% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 25:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2