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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Virtus.proloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
The Warden · 20 games
25%
Tiny
Tinysignature
The Warden · 15 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 13 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
iAnnihilate · 12 games
42%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 12 games
33%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 11 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 11 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sunlight · 10 games
70%

Virtus.pro

Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 23 games
83%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 17 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 15 games
73%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xakoda · 14 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
553 picks · 430 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
456 picks · 650 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 459 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 763 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
296 picks · 494 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
293 picks · 370 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
254 picks · 824 bans
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
251 picks · 160 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 62%
Hero pool strength62% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:22
Wildcard Gaming 38%Virtus.pro 62%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:58.
Game 2prediction correct14:36
Wildcard Gaming 38%Virtus.pro 62%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 62%
Accuracy by game2 of 2