The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Tempestloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
Vici Gaming
Tinysignature
Yds · 8 games
Marcioften banned
Frisk · 7 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 7 games
Hoodwink
Yds · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yang · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Yang · 5 games
Snapfire
Frisk · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
553 picks · 430 bans
Marci
456 picks · 650 bans
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 459 bans
Puck
338 picks · 763 bans
Death Prophet
296 picks · 494 bans
Winter Wyvern
293 picks · 370 bans
Batrider
254 picks · 824 bans
Dazzle
251 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:27
Tempest 35%Vici Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 34:44.
Game 2prediction correct34:10
Tempest 35%Vici Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 29:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 65%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2