The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 12 games
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 10 games
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 10 games
Marcioften banned
Husky · 9 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Husky · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 7 games
Polaris Esports
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 17 games
Marcioften banned
Boomy · 16 games
Tiny
Boomy · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Boomy · 14 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 11 games
Snapfire
Boomy · 11 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
553 picks · 430 bans
Marci
456 picks · 650 bans
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 459 bans
Puck
338 picks · 763 bans
Death Prophet
296 picks · 494 bans
Winter Wyvern
293 picks · 370 bans
Batrider
254 picks · 824 bans
Dazzle
251 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:37
nouns 56%Polaris Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on nouns — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 34:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendGunnar
LinaMac
Monkey KingCostabile
PangolierForce
Primal BeastMoo
MarciNatsumi
Earth SpiritZfreeK
EnchantressBoomy
Witch DoctorHusky
LichEyyou
Game 2prediction missed17:44
nouns 56%Polaris Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on nouns — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 34:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackCostabile
BloodseekerNatsumi
DawnbreakerMoo
TuskForce
SilencerGunnar
Void SpiritMac
PangolierHusky
HoodwinkBoomy
Vengeful SpiritZfreeK
EnigmaEyyou
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 60%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2