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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Marci
Marcioften banned
Boomy · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 15 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Boomy · 14 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 11 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 11 games
55%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
50%

Natus Vincere

Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Solo · 12 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
No[o]ne · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Solo · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 11 games
45%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 10 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
laise · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
553 picks · 428 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
455 picks · 643 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 459 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 758 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
296 picks · 492 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
292 picks · 370 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
254 picks · 817 bans
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
251 picks · 160 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:37
Polaris Esports 55%Natus Vincere 45%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNatsumi
47% · 152 games48% · 52 games
Drow RangerV-Tune
Drow Ranger
Pangolier
PangolierMac
53% · 200 games51% · 277 games
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
Ember Spirit
Undying
UndyingForce
54% · 105 games57% · 95 games
Visagelaise
Visage
Jakiro
JakiroBoomy
44% · 71 game47% · 147 games
Clockwerkswedenstrong
Clockwerk
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernEyyou
46% · 88 games52% · 45 games
Vengeful SpiritSolo
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct36:19
Polaris Esports 51%Natus Vincere 49%
The model gave 51% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 42:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNatsumi
49% · 174 games48% · 36 games
Shadow FiendV-Tune
Shadow Fiend
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMac
49% · 233 games52% · 120 games
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Queen of Pain
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
51% · 41 game53% · 263 games
Marslaise
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoomy
48% · 162 games52% · 81 game
Shadow DemonSolo
Shadow Demon
Lich
LichEyyou
42% · 51 game54% · 161 game
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2