The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Tinysignature
Yds · 8 games
Marcioften banned
Frisk · 7 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 7 games
Hoodwink
Yds · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yang · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Yang · 5 games
Viperoften banned
Xm · 5 games
Lifestealeroften banned
poyoyo · 4 games
Team Secret
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 15 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 14 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 13 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 10 games
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 10 games
Zeussignature
Nisha · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
553 picks · 428 bans
Marci
455 picks · 643 bans
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 459 bans
Puck
338 picks · 758 bans
Death Prophet
296 picks · 492 bans
Winter Wyvern
292 picks · 370 bans
Batrider
254 picks · 817 bans
Dazzle
251 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:22
Vici Gaming 48%Team Secret 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 31:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangerpoyoyo
InvokerNisha
Queen of PainXm
BeastmasterResolut1on
Visageniu
RazorCrystallis
EarthshakerFrisk
ChenPuppey
SnapfireYang
Earth SpiritZayac
Game 2prediction missed51:33
Vici Gaming 48%Team Secret 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 52:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinXm
InvokerNisha
Chaos Knightpoyoyo
Faceless VoidCrystallis
Marsniu
EnchantressPuppey
TuskYang
VenomancerResolut1on
SnapfireFrisk
Earth SpiritZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2