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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infamousloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 22 games
82%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 17 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 15 games
73%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xakoda · 14 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 14 games
71%

Infamous

Bane
Bane
Prada · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mariano · 8 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Mariano · 6 games
17%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
20%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Prada · 5 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Genek · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
554 picks · 429 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
454 picks · 637 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 459 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
337 picks · 758 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
296 picks · 494 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
292 picks · 370 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
254 picks · 810 bans
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
251 picks · 160 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength65% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:4
Virtus.pro 73%Infamous 27%
The model gave 73% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 22:39.
Game 2prediction correct32:22
Virtus.pro 73%Infamous 27%
The model gave 73% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 43:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 73%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2