The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 11 games
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 10 games
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 10 games
Marcioften banned
Husky · 9 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Husky · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Costabile · 7 games
Natus Vincere
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
Clockwerk
Solo · 12 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
No[o]ne · 12 games
Snapfire
Solo · 11 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 11 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 10 games
Timbersawsignature
laise · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
554 picks · 429 bans
Marci
454 picks · 637 bans
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 459 bans
Puck
337 picks · 758 bans
Death Prophet
296 picks · 494 bans
Winter Wyvern
292 picks · 370 bans
Batrider
254 picks · 810 bans
Dazzle
251 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:41
nouns 62%Natus Vincere 38%
The model gave 62% on nouns — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeCostabile
SvenV-Tune
PuckGunnar
PangolierNo[o]ne
Dragon KnightMoo
Enigmalaise
ClockwerkZfreeK
Rikiswedenstrong
RubickHusky
SilencerSolo
Game 2prediction missed29:37
nouns 62%Natus Vincere 38%
The model gave 62% on nouns — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 46:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterMoo
Faceless VoidV-Tune
Monkey KingCostabile
PangolierNo[o]ne
Templar AssassinGunnar
Miranalaise
TuskZfreeK
SilencerSolo
Spirit BreakerHusky
Svenswedenstrong
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 72%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2