The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tempestloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 13 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 10 games
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 10 games
Zeussignature
Nisha · 10 games
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
554 picks · 429 bans
Marci
454 picks · 637 bans
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 459 bans
Puck
337 picks · 758 bans
Death Prophet
296 picks · 494 bans
Winter Wyvern
292 picks · 370 bans
Batrider
254 picks · 810 bans
Dazzle
251 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:20
Team Secret 80%Tempest 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 38:01.
Game 2prediction correct30:20
Team Secret 80%Tempest 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 80%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2