BTS Pro Series Season 12: ЮВА · BO5
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 3:2series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Execrationloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Marssignature
Fbz · 27 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
Rubick
Tims · 16 games
Tiny
Yopaj · 16 games
Chaos Knightsignature
JaCkky · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Miranasignature
Tims · 14 games
Execration
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 16 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 16 games
Miranasignature
Shanks · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Palos · 13 games
Earth Spirit
Tino- · 10 games
Marssignature
Tino- · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 9 games
Earthshakersignature
Shanks · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
564 picks · 435 bans
Marci
456 picks · 641 bans
Dawnbreaker
345 picks · 474 bans
Puck
342 picks · 767 bans
Death Prophet
296 picks · 494 bans
Winter Wyvern
293 picks · 374 bans
Dazzle
253 picks · 161 bans
Batrider
252 picks · 813 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total85% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:28
BOOM Esports 71%Execration 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 49:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerJaCkky
Nature's ProphetPalos
Primal BeastYopaj
Ember SpiritBob
UnderlordFbz
EnigmaTino-
ClockwerkTims
EarthshakerShanks
Crystal MaidenSkem
Game 2prediction correct39:6
BOOM Esports 71%Execration 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night StalkerFbz
BloodseekerPalos
Faceless VoidJaCkky
Void SpiritBob
Primal BeastYopaj
EnigmaTino-
ChenSkem
EarthshakerShanks
Winter WyvernTims
Game 3prediction missed8:20
BOOM Esports 73%Execration 27%
The model gave 73% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 27:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
Templar AssassinBob
LeshracYopaj
PudgePalos
PangolierFbz
EnigmaTino-
ChenSkem
EarthshakerShanks
Winter WyvernTims
Game 4prediction correct31:8
BOOM Esports 71%Execration 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeJaCkky
PuckBob
Death ProphetFbz
RazorTino-
MarsYopaj
MarciPalos
ChenSkem
Nyx AssassinShanks
EarthshakerTims
Game 5prediction correct39:15
BOOM Esports 72%Execration 28%
The model gave 72% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
Nature's ProphetPalos
Ember SpiritYopaj
BatriderBob
MarsFbz
MarciTino-
MiranaTims
HoodwinkShanks
AbaddonSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 85%
Series resultBOOM Esports 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5