BTS Pro Series Season 12: ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hokoriloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 16 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 16 games
Miranasignature
Shanks · 15 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 12 games
Marssignature
Tino- · 10 games
Earth Spirit
Tino- · 9 games
Kunkkasignature
Palos · 8 games
Razorsignature
Tino- · 8 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
564 picks · 437 bans
Marci
457 picks · 639 bans
Dawnbreaker
347 picks · 474 bans
Puck
341 picks · 768 bans
Death Prophet
296 picks · 494 bans
Winter Wyvern
293 picks · 375 bans
Dazzle
253 picks · 161 bans
Batrider
250 picks · 815 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed51:28
Execration 23%Hokori 77%
The model gave 77% on Hokori — the game was taken by Execration in 51:26.
Game 2prediction correct16:27
Execration 23%Hokori 77%
The model gave 77% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 32:11.
Game 3prediction missed40:15
Execration 23%Hokori 77%
The model gave 77% on Hokori — the game was taken by Execration in 38:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 77%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3