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BTS Pro Series Season 12: Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team DogChampwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Cut

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 17 games
24%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 10 games
30%
Marci
Marcioften banned
bgod · 10 games
30%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jubei · 8 games
25%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Jubei · 8 games
25%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 8 games
50%

Team DogChamp

Bane
Banesignature
Bloody Nine · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yarintheslayer · 13 games
62%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 12 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 12 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 8 games
63%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
yarintheslayer · 8 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
yarintheslayer · 7 games
71%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
583 picks · 442 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
458 picks · 651 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
359 picks · 484 bans
44%
Puck
Puck
345 picks · 783 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
301 picks · 383 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
300 picks · 494 bans
50%
Dazzle
Dazzle
253 picks · 161 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
252 picks · 821 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 42%
Hero pool strength61% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total60% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct53:49
The Cut 40%Team DogChamp 60%
The model gave 60% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 1:02:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingScourge McDuck
59% · 87 games49% · 185 games
Chaos KnightStoneBank
Chaos Knight
Mars
MarsLil_Nick
50% · 231 game49% · 19 games
TinkerRCY
Tinker
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritred2
48% · 119 games46% · 114 games
DawnbreakerITALIANO GANGSTA
Dawnbreaker
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkbgod
45% · 117 games55% · 137 games
Undyingyarintheslayer
Undying
49% · 99 games
Dark WillowBloody Nine
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct13:36
The Cut 43%Team DogChamp 57%
The model gave 57% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 27:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinScourge McDuck
43% · 140 games51% · 145 games
BloodseekerStoneBank
Bloodseeker
Death Prophet
Death ProphetLil_Nick
48% · 234 games61% · 160 games
BeastmasterITALIANO GANGSTA
Beastmaster
Pangolier
Pangolierred2
48% · 204 games54% · 141 game
InvokerRCY
Invoker
Earthshaker
Earthshakerbgod
51% · 78 games47% · 173 games
Marciyarintheslayer
Marci
49% · 37 games
SilencerBloody Nine
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 60%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2