Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO5
result vs prediction
X3loss 0:3series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Monaspawin 3:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 22 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
Bane
antoha · 17 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
Beastmastersignature
Shergarat · 15 games
Marcisignature
velheor · 15 games
Zeussignature
velheor · 15 games
Tiny
velheor · 14 games
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
587 picks · 444 bans
Marci
457 picks · 659 bans
Dawnbreaker
363 picks · 487 bans
Puck
347 picks · 790 bans
Winter Wyvern
303 picks · 385 bans
Death Prophet
300 picks · 494 bans
Dazzle
255 picks · 161 bans
Batrider
252 picks · 823 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 70%
Hero pool strength55% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:61
X3 43%Monaspa 57%
The model gave 57% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 32:13.
Game 2prediction correct33:44
X3 43%Monaspa 57%
The model gave 57% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 35:46.
Game 3prediction correct21:45
X3 43%Monaspa 57%
The model gave 57% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 30:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 57%
Series resultMonaspa 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3